Bangladesh / Dengue forecasting

Forecast overview

Daily dengue estimates for Bangladesh’s eight divisions, powered by Jamdani.

Division

Model

—

predicted cases (5-day total)

5-day outlook

↗ Increase ↘ Decrease — No change

Daily estimates · cases per day

Zero baseline · automatic scale

Daily breakdown

Model at a glance

How Jamdani works & what these numbers mean

Jamdani — a tiered ensemble

Jamdani is not a single model but an ensemble of four specialist "tiers", each trained on the same weather signals but tuned for a different regime: a baseline weight-adjusted tier, a humidity-threshold tier, a lagged-effects tier (28/42-day memory), and an interactions tier. For every division and every expected case-load band, Jamdani blends these tiers with context-specific weights and reports which tier led the prediction.

MAE — Mean Absolute Error

On average, how many cases the prediction is off by, up or down. A lower number means the everyday predictions sit closer to reality.

RMSE — Root Mean Squared Error

An additional metric of accuracy, where big misses are punished much harder than small ones. A lower number means fewer large errors.

What drives the forecast

Relative feature importance · out of 100