About DVP

Dear Bangladesh,

Dengue fever in Bangladesh is a timeless public health, and personal, challenge that millions of families struggle wtih. DVP is a tool dedicated to the people of Bangladesh, one that acknowledges the silent weight of dengue.

DVP, Dengue Value Prediction, is the first-of-its kind system that gives dengue forecasts on a daily resolution, currently up to 5 days in advance. DVP can be used by individuals, or health care organisations, to be informed about current dengue risk. One of the main uses of DVP is on behalf of hospitals, clinics, and emergency wards, to enable pre-emptive measures to safely account for surges in patient volume. This model is not intended to replace professional medical advice, nor provide a guarantee, but only a mathematical suggestion based on objective data. This model may overpredict, or underpredict, potential daily cases.

The DVP project has been in development since 2023, and published in 2026 with its most accurate model to date. The current model system utlilzes a GAM with a Negative Binomial, with multiple tiers to account for factors that impact each Division differently. Each tier is specialized in reducing the margin of error for its appropriate conditions, and will be trained on its own predictions and future dengue cases over the coming months. Jamdani, a tribute to Bangladesh's intricate fabric legacy, accounts for factors such as seasonality, temperature, and rainfall while referncing a 15-day backcount of meterological conditions.

This is a tool for you, your family, your loved ones, and your patients.

Sincerely, Shadab Ali - DVP Developer

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