About DVP

Dear Bangladesh,

Dengue fever in Bangladesh is a persistent public health and personal challenge that millions of families struggle with. DVP is a tool dedicated to the people of Bangladesh, one that acknowledges the silent weight of dengue.

DVP, Dengue Value Prediction, is a first-of-its-kind system that provides daily dengue forecasts, currently up to five days in advance. Individuals and healthcare organizations can use DVP to stay informed about dengue risk. One of its main purposes is to help hospitals, clinics, and emergency wards take preemptive measures to prepare safely for surges in patient volume. This model is not intended to replace professional medical advice or provide a guarantee. It offers a mathematical estimate based on objective data and may overpredict or underpredict daily cases.

The DVP project has been in development since 2023 and was published in 2026 with its most accurate model to date. The current system utilizes a generalized additive model (GAM) with a negative binomial distribution and multiple tiers to account for factors that affect each division differently. Each tier specializes in reducing prediction error under its corresponding conditions and will be trained using its own predictions and subsequently reported dengue cases over the coming months. Jamdani, named in tribute to Bangladesh’s intricate textile heritage, accounts for factors such as seasonality, temperature, and rainfall using meteorological conditions from the preceding 15 days.

This is a tool for you, your family, your loved ones, and your patients.

Sincerely,
Shadab Ali
DVP Developer